2025-12-31

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

DEVELOPMENT 1

Government Normalizes Constitutional Gap Through Calendar Endorsement Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime met with the Provisional Electoral Council on December 30 and publicly endorsed the CEP's revised electoral calendar. The PM stated he had taken note with satisfaction of the publication of the electoral calendar and congratulated the Transitional Presidential Council for its commitment to elaborating the electoral decree. He characterized the calendar as realistic and credible and conforming to democratic requirements. This represents the first explicit government endorsement of the December 25 CEP calendar revision that abandoned the December 22 candidate list publication deadline and created a 365-day constitutional gap between February 7 2026 and February 7 2027. The endorsement occurred one day before New Year's Eve and 38 days before the CPT's constitutional mandate expiration. By praising the calendar and congratulating the CPT, the PM is attempting to normalize an extra-constitutional transition without formally announcing a mandate extension. This strategy relies on operational continuity rather than legal declaration. The December 31, 2025 government proceeds with an electoral calendar that structurally requires the CPT to govern through 2026 while avoiding direct confrontation with international actors who have declared February 7 as the unconditional end of the transitional mandate. The endorsement strategy faces three critical obstacles. Canadian Ambassador Sebastien Giroux declared on December 16 that February 7 represents the unconditional end of the CPT mandate, ruling out international legitimization of any extension. The MORN coalition declared on December 28 that the CPT mandate is already expired and authorities are only authorized for current affairs management. The OAS Roadmap's institutional continuity clause requires international actors to work with Haitian authorities to avoid a power vacuum but does not specify that the CPT remains the recognized authority after February 7. The December 30 meeting represents a calculated effort to establish facts on the ground. By securing government endorsement of the calendar, CEP operational acceptance, and international acquiescence through silence, the CPT seeks to make its February 7 expiration logistically impossible without triggering state collapse. This mirrors the pattern identified in media editorials published December 31 alleging silent maneuvers to extend power. The strategy depends on international actors prioritizing stability over constitutional adherence when faced with the binary choice between CPT continuation and institutional vacuum.