2025-12-31

Gang operational pauses have historically preceded major escalations in Haiti. The relative calm during the first two weeks of April 2024 immediately preceded the intense violence that forced Prime Minister Ariel Henry's resignation and enabled CPT establishment. The December 2023 holiday pause preceded the February-March 2024 surge that closed Toussaint Louverture International Airport and surrounded the National Palace. Gangs use operational pauses to resupply, coordinate between factions, and position for maximum impact when violence resumes, making current calm a concerning indicator rather than positive development.