2025-12-31

Eleventh Consecutive Day Without Major Violence Signals Strategic Gang Pause December 31 marked the eleventh consecutive day without reported major gang violence following a pattern that began December 21. Monitored sources including Haiti Libre, Haiti24, Le Nouvelliste, and Vant Bef Info reported zero security incidents on New Year's Eve as of 5:16 PM EST. This represents the longest sustained operational pause in 2025 excluding isolated incidents on December 23 involving a repelled Coast Guard maritime attack and December 24 General Hospital attack plus Minoterie drone strike killing dozens. The operational pause demonstrates gang capacity to strategically modulate violence rather than operating under external constraint. Groups that control 80 percent of Port-au-Prince and conducted systematic attacks through mid-December including the December 19 Petionville school shooting and December 20 Carrefour-Feuilles massacre can suspend operations at will. The timing during the holiday period suggests gangs are consolidating positions, monitoring political developments, and preparing for escalation in early January 2026 as the February 7 deadline approaches. The Crisis Group assessed on December 15 that gangs are strategically monitoring the electoral and political process to determine their February 7 leverage options. By pausing operations during the MORN December 29 sit-in demonstration, gangs observed that opposition mobilization produced limited turnout and PNH tolerance without repression. By pausing through New Year's Eve, gangs avoid triggering international attention during the holiday period when media coverage and diplomatic engagement are reduced. The pattern validates Crisis Group analysis that armed December 31, 2025 groups seek amnesty as part of any February 7 transition negotiation. The PM's December 28 statement declaring no negotiations with gangs represents a military solution doctrine that the eleven-day pause undermines. The December 27 US donation of 25 armored vehicles to PNH demonstrates continued international investment in security force capacity. However, the operational pause proves gangs are not militarily defeated or constrained. Expect violence to resume in early January following Haiti Independence Day on January 1 as armed groups test government resolve and signal their capacity to disrupt any transition process that excludes their interests. The pause is tactical preparation for escalation not evidence of security progress.