2025-12-31

Prepare for violence resumption in first week of January following Independence Day on January 1. Monitor gang activity in first 48 hours after New Year for signals of escalation timeline. Assess whether operational pause reflects coordination between major gang factions. December 31, 2025 Evaluate if pause demonstrates gang confidence in political leverage versus fear of security operations. Track PNH deployment patterns during pause for indicators of institutional readiness. Consider whether gang pause influences international community timeline pressure on CPT mandate question. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on consistent reporting absence across multiple independent sources.