2025-12-31

Violence resumption after Haiti Independence Day on January 1 would signal end of eleven-day operational pause. Gang activity in first 48 hours of 2026 will indicate whether armed groups maintain strategic pause through early January or immediately escalate to test government security response capacity. Zero incidents through January 2 would suggest gangs extending pause pending political developments while attacks on January 1-2 would demonstrate operational calendar tied to symbolic dates rather than political calculation. Monitor Port-au-Prince downtown areas, Petionville commercial zones, and critical infrastructure for first-strike targets.