2025-12-31
TALKING POINTS
Eleventh consecutive day without major violence represents longest 2025 operational pause.
Pattern demonstrates gang capacity to modulate violence strategically not external constraint.
Timing during holiday period suggests consolidation before January 2026 escalation.
Pause validates Crisis Group assessment that gangs monitor political process for leverage
opportunities.
PM's no negotiations doctrine undermined by evidence gangs not militarily defeated.
Historical pattern shows operational pauses precede major escalations not sustained security
improvements.