2026-01-04

Government operations fully resume on January 5 creating trigger for gang violence resumption ending the 18-day operational pause. Expect armed groups to test security force response capacity within 24 to 48 hours, potentially targeting critical infrastructure or civilian populations in Port-au-Prince, Artibonite, or Plateau Central. Monitor whether violence escalation is designed to force negotiations contradicting the Prime Minister's December 28 no negotiations doctrine.