2026-01-04

Eighteen-day operational pause from December 21 through January 4 represents longest sustained period without major gang violence in 2025. MOPAL assessment confirms pause is not evidence of PNH or GSF military success but gang tactical discipline through holiday period. Gangs consolidating territorial control in Artibonite and Plateau Central and observing political developments before resumption. Crisis Group warning that gangs seek amnesty remains relevant as CPT approaches constitutional expiration without replacement framework. Pattern of strategic pauses followed by escalation characterized gang operations throughout 2025. Expect violence resumption January 5 through 7 when government operations fully restart with 34 days remaining until February 7.