2026-02-08

Timeline Viability Armed gangs maintain control over 23 communes across West, Artibonite, Centre, and Northwest departments creating substantial obstacles to implementation of the August 30, 2026 electoral calendar published by the Provisional Electoral Council in Le Moniteur on December 24, 2025. The CEP has identified these 23 inaccessible areas as requiring acceptable security environment restoration before the council can establish electoral infrastructure including voter registration sites, polling locations, and vote tabulation offices. The current schedule calls for campaign period beginning May 19, first round voting on August 30, and presidential inauguration on February 7, 2027. Gang territorial dominance now encompasses an estimated 85-90% of Port-au-Prince and expanding zones in Haiti's agricultural heartland. The Viv Ansanm coalition remains the primary armed force despite internal fractures that emerged in December 2025 over kidnapping policy disputes resulting in deadly clashes. Security indicators show continued deterioration with casualties from January through September 2025 totaling 4,384 killed, 1,899 wounded, and 491 kidnapped. Intentional homicides in Artibonite and Centre departments increased 210% with 1,303 victims from January through August 2025 compared to 419 during the same 2024 period. CEP president Jacques Desrosiers declared in October 2025 that an earlier electoral calendar proposing February 1, 2026 first round voting was impossible due to gang violence and funding gaps. The revised August timeline assumes security improvements that appear unlikely without full Gang Suppression Force deployment and sustained counter-gang operations through the May campaign launch date. The electoral decree published in Le Moniteur included provisions for 30% women candidate requirements and overseas voter participation but compliance mechanisms remain undefined with no party registration process yet initiated. The convergence of governance vacuum, security force transition gap, and gang territorial expansion creates substantial risk of electoral timeline disruption. Political activity has been frozen during the CPT dissolution crisis with no major party rallies, candidate announcements, or coalition formations reported. The campaign period scheduled to begin in 103 days requires accessible territory, functioning security, and political organizing space that does not currently exist in gang-controlled zones. Food insecurity projected to affect 54% of the population during February 08, 2026 the March-June lean season will further constrain electoral preparation and voter mobilization capacity.