2026-02-26

GSF troop generation ahead of the April 2026 arrival window is the single most consequential variable in Haiti's near-term trajectory. If pledged forces from Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, and Bangladesh begin pre-deployment confirmation, the August 30 electoral timeline remains viable. If force generation stalls, the CEP will face an impossible logistics problem in 23 gang-controlled communes. The CEP's ability to establish operational presence in those communes before the May 19 campaign opening is the leading indicator of electoral feasibility. The Senate HOPE/HELP vote before the September 2025 retroactive cutoff becomes commercially critical for the textile sector. Dominican Republic diplomatic normalization, if Fils-Aime proceeds with the outreach he signaled at CARICOM, could materially shift border trade dynamics and bilateral security coordination within 60 to 90 days.