2026-02-26

Humanitarian organizations should plan operational timelines on the assumption that GSF April arrival is the optimistic scenario and build contingency capacity for a June-July effective deployment date. Businesses operating in Port-au-Prince should treat Carrefour-Aeroport as an indicator zone: sustained commercial normalization there over 60 days would signal a durable shift; renewed gang pressure would signal continued vulnerability. Security planners should assess whether the drone strike campaign against gang leadership is accelerating Viv Ansanm fragmentation or triggering internal consolidation under successor commanders. International mission coordinators should press contributing countries for firm troop deployment schedules ahead of the April window to prevent last-minute force generation failures. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.