2026-01-29

Government Despite Constitutional Ambiguity With nine days until the CPT mandate expires February 7, 2026, Laurent Saint-Cyr and Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime have consolidated as the de facto executive axis likely to form a caretaker government absent a negotiated political accord. The aborted January 29 attempt to remove Saint-Cyr confirms his control over Le Moniteur transmission and eliminates the five-member coalition's last leverage to publish the dismissal resolution. Former interim president January 29, 2026 Jocelerme Privert argued January 26 that there will be no institutional vacuum after February 7 because the constitution allows the prime minister and government to continue if no successor authority is installed, providing legal cover for a Fils-Aime caretaker government. The Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime consolidation reflects international backing and domestic political exhaustion. The United States and Canada have consistently supported Fils-Aime and opposed the dismissal effort, with Secretary of State Rubio stating January 23 that the CPT must be dissolved by February 7. The January 25 US visa revocations targeting two CPT members who supported dismissal further weakened the opposition coalition. Emmanuel Vertilaire's functional alignment with Saint-Cyr despite his party leader's opposition indicates erosion of the dismissal bloc. Smith Augustin's reversal after party disavowal removes another potential vote for Saint-Cyr removal. However, the constitutional legitimacy of a post-February 7 Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime caretaker government remains contested. The CPT's mandate is explicitly non-renewable and terminates February 7 with no provision for extension. While Privert's interpretation that the prime minister can continue in a caretaker capacity has constitutional precedent, this would create a government without a head of state, an anomalous situation in Haiti's semi-presidential system. Political parties that opposed Fils-Aime's appointment or supported the dismissal effort may refuse to recognize a caretaker government lacking CPT authorization, though their ability to contest it operationally is limited given Saint-Cyr's control over Le Moniteur and international backing for executive continuity. Civil society actors issued a public statement January 28 warning that if no responsible and inclusive solution is agreed before February 7, Haiti risks entering a new phase of institutional vacuum, violence and chaos with consequences not only for Haitians but for the broader Caribbean, the Americas and the international community. The National Conference of Actors for New Governance sent a letter to CARICOM Secretary General Dr. Carla Barnett January 23 seeking intervention to establish an impartial and inclusive framework to initiate negotiations among Haiti's various stakeholders. The convergence of UNSC mandate renewal, CARICOM alarm, and civil society appeals creates maximum diplomatic pressure on Haiti's political class to negotiate a transition framework in the final nine days, but no breakthrough has materialized as of January 29 and Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime continuity appears the default outcome.