2026-01-29

International organizations should prepare operational plans for engagement with Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime caretaker government. Businesses should treat Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime continuity as baseline scenario for February 7 planning. Political actors should communicate clear signals of recognition or non-recognition to manage stakeholder expectations. CARICOM should intensify EPG mediation efforts in final nine days to broker political accord if possible. Civil society organizations should mobilize public monitoring of post-February 7 legitimacy claims. Diaspora communities should prepare for potential instability spike if contested legitimacy triggers street protests or gang exploitation. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.