2026-01-29

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

DEVELOPMENT 3: CARICOM Warns Political Fragmentation Benefits Gangs as Aborted Attempt

to Remove CPT Coordinator Confirms Coalition Collapse CARICOM issued a statement January 27 expressing great concern over internal turmoil taking place at the highest levels of the Haitian state and warning that the current impasse within the Haitian Transitional Presidential Council renders more complex an already fraught governance transition process. The regional body's language carried particular force stating that meanwhile the January 29, 2026 people of Haiti continue to suffer unimaginable violence and deprivation which is unacceptable. CARICOM emphasized that it is crucial that stakeholders put aside differences to reach consensus and confirmed that the CARICOM Eminent Persons Group remains at the disposal of all stakeholders to facilitate agreement from the multiplicity of proposals which currently exist. CARICOM's most pointed warning targeted the strategic consequences of continued political infighting. The statement declared that CARICOM's foremost hope is for a halt to current fragmentation which works only for the benefit of the gangs, and for the restoration of lasting political stability, security and peace in Haiti so that elections can be held and attention refocused on economic growth and sustainable development for the benefit of all Haitians. The statement concluded with a direct appeal calling on all Haitian stakeholders to put the future of their people and country above all else and to act responsibly with urgency and patriotism. Against this backdrop, two Haitian media outlets reported January 29 that an attempt to remove CPT coordinator Laurent Saint-Cyr was aborted after CPT member Smith Augustin opposed the maneuver. The strategic significance is profound. Saint-Cyr as CPT president pro tempore controls the transmission of resolutions to Le Moniteur, the official gazette where government decisions acquire legal force. The five-member CPT majority has been unable to publish their January 21 resolution dismissing Prime Minister Fils-Aime because Saint-Cyr refuses to transmit it. Removing Saint-Cyr would have theoretically allowed the five members to install a new coordinator willing to publish the dismissal resolution, but Augustin's opposition consistent with his January reversal when his party Compromis Historique disavowed his participation in the dismissal effort fractured that strategy. The aborted removal attempt suggests the five-member coalition is politically exhausted. Two members were sanctioned by the United States January 25 with visa revocations for gang operation involvement. Fritz Alphonse Jean was sanctioned in November 2025. Augustin has been disavowed by his party and now opposes further destabilization. Emmanuel Vertilaire representing Moise Jean-Charles' Pitit Dessalines party has functionally aligned with the Saint-Cyr/Fils-Aime executive axis despite his party leader's opposition. The dismissal coalition's collapse leaves Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime as the de facto continuity government, but their position lacks constitutional grounding post-February 7 absent a negotiated political accord.