2026-01-19

Will gangs resume Port-au-Prince violence during late January period from January 22 through January 26 to exploit political chaos and pressure amnesty negotiations, or will they extend the forty-three day pause through month end awaiting post-February 7 vacuum for negotiation leverage. Monitor downtown Port-au-Prince, Bel Air, Delmas, La Saline, and Cite Soleil for signs of gang mobilization including barricade reconstruction, armed group movements, or attacks on humanitarian corridors. Violence resumption late January provides ten to fourteen days of pressure before February 7 sufficient to disrupt transition, while pause extension through January 31 suggests gangs waiting for February 1-7 coordination vacuum to negotiate from strength position.