2026-01-12

If Andresol promise fails and routes remain closed on February 7, opposition groups MORN and Montana Accord will likely mobilize public campaigns arguing CPT has failed and must not be extended. CARICOM faces decision point on whether to support CPT extension given January 9 warning of unconditional mandate end and documented operational failures. Healthcare collapse with only 40 percent facility operations creates humanitarian crisis that will compound any violence escalation. The 31-day gang attack pause ending would produce mass casualties January 12, 2026 without medical response capacity. February 7 approaches with fragmented governance frameworks, compressed implementation timelines, and converging humanitarian, security, and political pressures.