2026-01-12

International actors should recognize gang attack pause as tactical restraint for amnesty negotiations not capacity degradation. January 12, 2026 CARICOM should establish contact group to explore gang amnesty framework as component of February 7 transition resolution. PNH should shift from counteroffensive operations producing civilian casualties to sustained territorial control operations. CPT should publicly address gang amnesty question before February 7 to clarify whether negotiations are occurring. Opposition groups should monitor PNH operations for human rights violations including stray bullet civilian casualties. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.