2026-01-12

PROMISE TO REOPEN ROUTES BEFORE DEADLINE Secretary of State for Public Security Mario Andresol promised on January 12 that routes leading to the South and North will reopen before February 7. This represents the first explicit government commitment linking infrastructure restoration to the February 7 CPT mandate expiration deadline. The promise directly addresses National Route No. 1 impassability at Montrouis documented by OCHA since January 6 and National Route No. 2 periodic blockages in Artibonite and Leogane. By setting February 7 as the deadline for route reopening, Andresol establishes a measurable performance metric that the public, international actors, and opposition groups will use to evaluate government credibility. If routes remain closed on February 7, the government's claims of retaking control of territory will be operationally disproven. The promise suggests the government views infrastructure reopening as a prerequisite for legitimizing potential CPT mandate extension beyond February 7. The logic appears to be that if routes reopen before February 7, the government can argue progress is being made and January 12, 2026 extension is warranted to consolidate gains. If routes remain closed, the government lacks credible justification for extension. With 26 days remaining, Andresol's promise requires clearing gangs from Montrouis on National Route No. 1 and Leogane and Artibonite checkpoints on National Route No. 2, establishing security perimeters to prevent gang re-infiltration, and demonstrating sustained access rather than temporary clearance. The January 8-12 Gonaieves Deschaos paralysis demonstrates that security forces struggle to restore order quickly even in major urban centers. If Andresol's promise fails and routes remain closed on February 7, it will undermine government credibility ahead of the transition, strengthen opposition arguments from MORN and Montana Accord that the CPT has failed and must not be extended, and weaken international support for CPT extension particularly from Canada which declared unconditional end on December 16. The promise appears operationally unrealistic within 26 days given PNH capacity constraints documented throughout the operational pause period. Le Nouvelliste reported on January 12 that the state reaffirms determination to retake control of territory, but this messaging contradicts operational realities including Montrouis blockage, Gonaieves paralysis, and Varreux terminal closure requiring police operations.