2026-01-12

January 6 Bel Air clashes and January 9 Varreux closure clarify 31-day pause refers to gang attack restraint not PNH operations. Gang tactical restraint consistent with Crisis Group warning that gangs seek amnesty as February 7 transition leverage. PNH conducting active counteroffensives in Bel Air, downtown Port-au-Prince, and Varreux area attempting territorial gains. Gonaieves paralysis, Montrouis blockage, and MSF suspension demonstrate PNH not achieving sustainable territorial control. Government strategy appears focused on short-term authority demonstrations rather than long-term stabilization ahead of February 7.