2026-01-06

Late January timeframe represents critical decision point for gang operations as February 7 deadline approaches with gangs likely to resume Port-au-Prince violence after achieving sufficient Artibonite territorial consolidation. February 3 TPS expiration if federal court allows termination to proceed will trigger deportation logistics planning and potential diaspora mobilization against enforcement. February 7 CPT mandate expiration represents constitutional reckoning requiring either consensual replacement formula negotiated among stakeholders or competing legitimacy claims from parallel frameworks. Convergence of TPS deportations and CPT expiration within four-day window creates compounded governance and humanitarian crisis requiring coordinated international response that is not currently visible. Gang strategic calculations regarding whether to maintain operational restraint through February 7 to avoid jeopardizing potential political negotiations or resume violence to demonstrate continued threat will shape security trajectory through constitutional deadline.