2026-01-06

Monitor emerging civil society proposals to assess which organizations and political parties are coalescing around specific replacement formulas. Engage CARICOM and OAS to determine if regional actors are facilitating coordination between parallel negotiation tracks. Prepare analysis of constitutional and legal frameworks that could provide legitimacy for competing post-February 7 arrangements. Track CPT public communications for any departure from operational silence that might indicate positioning on succession. Brief international partners on fragmentation risk and need for coordinated diplomatic pressure to achieve stakeholder alignment before February 7. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.