2026-01-06

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

TALKING POINTS

Civil society proposal published January 6 explicitly recognizes CPT failed to restore security, revive economy, revise Constitution, or organize elections. Proposal confirms April 3 2024 Agreement prohibits CPT mandate extension beyond February 7 requiring replacement formula negotiation. Parallel negotiation tracks emerging between CPT operational extension attempts, civil society replacement proposals, and CARICOM-OAS continuity coordination. Lack of coordination among stakeholders increases probability of competing legitimacy claims after February 7 rather than orderly succession. Publication in Haiti Libre suggests proposers attempting to generate public pressure rather than operating through formal negotiation channels. 32 days remaining with no visible consensual framework indicates stakeholders preparing positioning strategies not coordination agreements.