2025-12-26

Will the CPT attempt to unilaterally extend its mandate beyond February 7 2026 or will it negotiate a new transitional framework with CARICOM and OAS before the expiration date. Trigger is January 15 to February 1 2026 period when political actors must position for post February 7 scenarios. Direction of travel is CPT likely to attempt self extension citing security conditions and electoral delays. Risk is constitutional crisis with competing claims to legitimacy. Will the CEP May 19 2026 campaign start date prove operationally achievable given security conditions in 23 gang controlled communes and funding gaps or will further calendar revisions be required. Trigger is February to March 2026 period when CEP must finalize candidate lists and logistical preparations. Direction of travel is highly likely further delays given current security trajectory. Risk is complete electoral process collapse and indefinite transitional governance. Will gang coalitions escalate attacks in early 2026 in retaliation for PNH drone strikes or will asymmetric warfare strategy achieve sustainable territorial gains. Trigger is first two weeks of January 2026 when gangs emerge from holiday operational pause. Direction of travel is likely gang escalation with coordinated multi commune attacks. Risk is humanitarian catastrophe if attacks target population centers or aid distribution networks. December 26, 2025