2025-12-26

THE DRONE STRIKE ESCALATION PNH ASYMMETRIC WARFARE CONTINUES Haiti24 reported that PNH conducted a drone strike killing dozens at a gang celebration in Minoterie in the days leading up to Christmas December 25. The report states that explosive drones were used to target heavily armed bandits during a celebration organized in an area long dominated by gangs. This strike confirms the continuation of the PNH asymmetric warfare strategy that Crisis Group reported has killed over 200 people since its launch in recent weeks. The timing around Christmas and the target of a gang celebration suggest the PNH is exploiting gang operational pauses during holiday periods to conduct strikes when gang members are concentrated and potentially less vigilant. The Minoterie strike represents the latest phase in a PNH strategy that relies on drone delivered explosives and armored vehicle advances rather than traditional foot patrol territorial control. However Crisis Group warned on December 15 that this strategy risks higher civilian casualties and gang retaliation because drone strikes cannot distinguish between gang members and civilians in densely populated urban areas. There is no evidence from available reporting that the PNH has successfully reclaimed and held territory in areas where drone strikes have occurred. This suggests the strikes are primarily attrition focused rather than territorial control focused. The four day security pause from December 23 through December 26 including the maritime attack repelled December 23 the General Hospital attack December 24 that killed multiple journalists and one police officer and zero incidents December 25 and 26 may indicate gangs are strategically absorbing PNH strikes before launching coordinated responses in early 2026. Gang coalitions have demonstrated capacity for operational pauses followed by synchronized multi commune attacks as seen in previous cycles. The Christmas New Year period may represent a temporary tactical pause rather than a sustained reduction in gang capability. The PNH reliance on asymmetric warfare also raises questions about sustainability given equipment maintenance costs ammunition resupply requirements and pilot training needs. The December 26, 2025 Kenya led multinational security force has not publicly reported participating in drone operations suggesting the PNH is conducting these strikes independently. This independence could create coordination gaps if the multinational force eventually deploys additional personnel beyond the current Kenyan contingent.