2025-12-26

SECURITY PAUSE CONTINUES ZERO INCIDENTS DECEMBER 26 December 26 marks the second consecutive day with zero reported security incidents following the Christmas Day pause. This extends a pattern of intermittent operational pauses punctuated by high impact attacks including the December 24 General Hospital assault that killed multiple journalists and one police officer and the December 23 maritime attack that was repelled by Coast Guard forces. The absence of incidents on December 25 and 26 suggests gang coalitions are observing a tactical pause during the Christmas holiday period consistent with previous behavioral patterns during major holidays when civilian movement is reduced and international attention is focused elsewhere. However this pause should not be interpreted as evidence of gang capability degradation or strategic retreat. Gang coalitions have repeatedly demonstrated capacity to absorb security force pressure through tactical withdrawals followed by synchronized multi commune attacks when conditions are favorable. The December 24 General Hospital attack which specifically targeted journalists demonstrates continued gang operational capability and willingness to conduct high visibility strikes against symbolic targets even during periods of intensified PNH operations. The timing of the pause coinciding with the CEP Christmas Day calendar revision and the PNH Minoterie drone strike suggests multiple actors are using the holiday period for strategic repositioning. Gangs may be using the pause to assess PNH drone strike patterns and prepare countermeasures while the CEP used the reduced political attention period to publish a controversial calendar revision. This convergence of tactical pauses institutional announcements and asymmetric warfare strikes indicates the first week of January 2026 will likely see a resumption of violence as actors emerge from holiday operational pauses. The broader security trajectory remains unchanged by the December 25 to 26 pause. ACLED reporting through mid December documented sustained gang territorial control in Port au Prince metropolitan area and expansion into Artibonite communes. The Kenya led multinational security force has not published operational updates since early December suggesting deployment remains limited to initial Kenyan contingent without additional pledged personnel from other contributing countries.