2025-12-26
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
Will the CPT issue a public statement acknowledging the CEP revised calendar and addressing
the February 7 2026 mandate expiration or will institutional silence continue. Trigger is end of
Christmas holiday period December 27. Direction of travel is CPT likely to remain silent creating
December 26, 2025
additional uncertainty. Risk is that silence confirms CPT planning unilateral mandate extension
without legal basis.
Will gangs resume violence after the Christmas operational pause potentially in retaliation for the
Minoterie drone strike or will the security pause extend through New Year. Trigger is December 27
to 28 weekend period when civilian movement increases. Direction of travel is likely resumption of
attacks in early January 2026. Risk is coordinated multi commune strikes targeting PNH positions
or symbolic infrastructure.