2025-12-26

Will CARICOM or OAS convene emergency sessions to address the 365 day constitutional gap between February 7 2026 CPT expiration and February 7 2027 inauguration or will international community delay response. Trigger is first business week after Christmas December 30 to January 3. Direction of travel is international stakeholders likely to delay until mid January. Risk is that delay allows CPT to establish facts on ground through unilateral mandate extension. Will the Kenya led multinational security force publish operational updates or deployment timelines for additional pledged personnel beyond current Kenyan contingent. Trigger is end of 2025 calendar year. Direction of travel is force likely to remain silent on deployment challenges. Risk is that silence confirms deployment stalled indefinitely.