2025-12-23

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

STRATEGIC HORIZON

The February 7 2026 constitutional deadline requires emergency CARICOM mediation framework by January 15 to allow meaningful succession negotiations before mandate expiration. Without intervention in the next three weeks, Haiti enters constitutional limbo with no legal government, no security force command clarity, and maximum gang negotiating leverage for amnesty agreements. The next 46 days determine whether Haiti's democratic transition continues under revised timeline or collapses into extra constitutional governance.