# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-23
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Provisional Electoral Council has failed to publish the final candidate list for 48
consecutive hours beyond the December 22 deadline with zero official explanation from
any government or international actor. The December 26 campaign period start is now
operationally impossible. Three consecutive days of unprecedented security silence
suggest gangs are strategically awaiting the list publication or electoral collapse
confirmation before determining their February 7 amnesty negotiating position. With 46
days remaining until the Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires on February
7 2026, Haiti faces converging crises requiring immediate CARICOM intervention to
prevent constitutional limbo.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

CEP candidate list 48 hours overdue with zero explanation from any actor.
December 26 campaign start now impossible forcing complete calendar revision.
Three days of security silence unprecedented since December 18 PNH offensive.
46 days to February 7 2026 constitutional deadline with no succession mechanism.
Complete government and international community silence entering third day.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

Electoral Timeline Collapse - The 48 Hour Blackout
The Provisional Electoral Council has now failed for 48 consecutive hours to publish the
final candidate list for the August 30 2026 elections. The list was scheduled for release
on December 22 but remains unpublished as of afternoon December 23 with no
statement from the CEP explaining the delay. The CEP website continues to display
only voter registration information and journalist training announcements with no
acknowledgment of the missed deadline. This represents not a technical delay but a
systemic institutional breakdown that threatens the entire electoral timeline.
Three scenarios explain the silence. First is zero or insufficient registrations where the
15 day registration period from December 2-16 yielded too few candidates to constitute
a legitimate electoral process forcing emergency negotiations over deadline extensions
or process abandonment. Second is contestation gridlock where the December 16-19
contestation period produced unresolvable disputes that paralyzed the validation
December 23, 2025

process. Third is political crisis where behind the scenes negotiations between the
Transitional Presidential Council, major parties, and international actors have stalled
preventing list publication until political agreements are reached. Each scenario
requires different emergency responses but the 48 hour silence from all actors
suggests either active negotiations or complete institutional paralysis.
The December 26 campaign period start is now operationally impossible. Even if the list
publishes on December 24, candidates cannot organize campaigns in Haiti's security
environment with only one to two days notice. This means the entire August 30 2026
timeline must be formally revised requiring coordination between the Transitional
Presidential Council, the CEP, and the international community with constitutional
justification for the extension. The 48 hour silence from the CEP, the Transitional
Presidential Council, the Organization of American States, BINUH, CARICOM, and the
United States suggests either emergency negotiations are underway or no actor is
willing to publicly acknowledge the crisis scale.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's previous electoral delays in 2015-2016 required CARICOM mediation and
multiple calendar revisions before producing the February 2017 Jovenel Moise
inauguration demonstrating that timeline collapses can extend electoral processes by
12-18 months.



## TALKING POINTS

The CEP candidate list is 48 hours overdue with zero official explanation.
The December 26 campaign start is impossible even if the list publishes tomorrow.
All government and international actors maintain complete silence for 48 hours.
Three possible causes are insufficient registrations, contestation gridlock, or political
deadlock.
The entire August 30 2026 timeline now requires formal revision.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

CARICOM should issue an emergency statement demanding CEP transparency on the
delay by December 24.
The Transitional Presidential Council should convene an emergency session to address
December 23, 2025

the electoral timeline collapse.
International donors should condition further electoral support on immediate publication
of registration statistics.
The CEP should publish a revised electoral calendar within 72 hours acknowledging
the December 26 impossibility.
Civil society organizations should demand public accountability for the 48 hour silence.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

The Three Day Security Silence - Gang Strategic Calculation
December 23 marks the third consecutive day with no major security incidents, gang
attacks, or PNH operations reported by Haiti Libre, Le Nouvelliste, AlterPresse, or
international wire services. This sustained operational pause is unprecedented in
December's violence pattern. The last major incident was the December 18 PNH
offensive in Pernier, Torcel, and Croix des Bouquets. Three consecutive silent days
suggest either post offensive operational disruption or deliberate strategic pause by
gangs awaiting the candidate list publication before determining their response
strategy.
This pattern validates the International Crisis Group December 15 assessment that
gangs are strategically monitoring the electoral process to determine their February 7
amnesty negotiating position. A weak or nonexistent candidate list strengthens gang
leverage because if the electoral process collapses, the Transitional Presidential
Council has no legitimate successor on February 7 forcing the government to negotiate
with gangs for stability. Conversely, a strong candidate list with major opposition
participation threatens gang interests by legitimizing a government with popular
mandate to suppress them without negotiation. The three day silence suggests gangs
are waiting for the list or confirmation of its indefinite delay before determining whether
to resume violence or maintain the strategic pause.
December 23, 2025

The operational pause also coincides with Christmas week which historically reduces
both gang and police operational tempo. However, the timing correlation with the
candidate list delay suggests strategic calculation rather than holiday effect. If the list
remains unpublished past December 25, gangs may interpret this as electoral collapse
confirmation triggering resumed violence to pressure February 7 amnesty negotiations.
Conversely, list publication may trigger immediate attacks to disrupt campaign launches
demonstrating gang capacity to prevent electoral process continuation.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The December 2023 gang offensive that displaced 300000 people in Artibonite began
immediately after the government announced electoral timeline commitments
demonstrating gang capacity to respond strategically to political developments.



## TALKING POINTS

Three consecutive days without security incidents since December 18 is
unprecedented.
Timing correlation with candidate list delay suggests strategic gang pause not holiday
effect.
Gangs monitoring electoral process strength to determine February 7 negotiating
leverage.
Violence likely resumes within 24-48 hours of list publication or Christmas delay
confirmation.
The silence represents calculated positioning not operational incapacity.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security analysts should prepare for violence resumption within 24-48 hours of list
publication.
Humanitarian organizations should pre position resources anticipating post Christmas
violence spike.
The PNH should maintain elevated readiness posture despite current operational
pause.
International observers should track gang response patterns to electoral developments.
Diplomatic actors should recognize gang silence as strategic positioning not de
escalation.
December 23, 2025

CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

The 46 Day Constitutional Cliff
Haiti is 46 days from the February 7 2026 Transitional Presidential Council mandate
expiration with no published candidate list and no viable succession mechanism. The
August 30 2026 election date requires a legitimate government to organize it but
without a published candidate list there is no viable electoral process. If the list remains
unpublished past December 25, the realistic timeline becomes: earliest revised first
round in March-April 2026 requiring 60-90 days preparation from list publication,
earliest second round in May-June 2026, and earliest inauguration in July-August 2026.
This means the Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires five to six months
before a new government can be inaugurated.
Three succession options exist but each faces severe legitimacy constraints. First is a
CARICOM negotiated mandate extension which lacks constitutional basis and would
require buy in from all Transitional Presidential Council factions and international
donors. Second is emergency constitutional amendment requiring parliamentary
approval that does not exist because parliament dissolved in January 2023. Third is
extra constitutional transitional agreement with no legal foundation creating a de facto
government until elections conclude. Each option requires immediate international
mediation but the 48 hour silence from CARICOM, the Organization of American
States, and major donors suggests no actor has prepared for this scenario.
The constitutional crisis compounds the security crisis because gang negotiating
leverage increases as February 7 approaches without succession clarity. If no
legitimate government exists after February 7, security forces lose clear command
authority potentially triggering defections or paralysis. International security support
through the Multinational Security Support mission depends on host nation request
legitimacy which becomes dubious without constitutional government. The next 46 days
December 23, 2025

require either emergency CARICOM intervention to negotiate succession framework or
Haiti enters constitutional limbo with no legal government and no security force
command structure.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The February 7 2016 presidential term expiration without elected successor triggered
13 months of interim government under CARICOM negotiated framework until
February 2017 Jovenel Moise inauguration demonstrating precedent for extra
constitutional transitions.



## TALKING POINTS

46 days remain until February 7 2026 Transitional Presidential Council mandate
expiration.
Candidate list delay means new government inauguration cannot occur before
July-August 2026.
Five to six month gap between mandate expiration and possible inauguration requires
emergency framework.
Three succession options all face severe constitutional or political legitimacy
constraints.
Gang negotiating leverage increases hourly as February 7 approaches without
succession clarity.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

CARICOM should convene emergency Haiti consultation within 72 hours to address
February 7 succession.
The Organization of American States should prepare mandate extension negotiation
framework by January 1.
International donors should coordinate position on constitutional vs extra constitutional
succession by December 31.
The Transitional Presidential Council should request formal CARICOM mediation on
mandate extension by December 27.
Civil society should demand transparent succession planning before January 15 to
allow 30 day public consultation.
December 23, 2025

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

Complete Institutional Silence - Paralysis or Negotiation
As of evening December 23, zero statements have been issued by the CEP, the
Transitional Presidential Council, Prime Minister Alix Fils Aime, the Organization of
American States, BINUH, CARICOM, or the United States regarding the candidate list
delay. This 48 hour silence entering its third day represents either active behind the
scenes emergency negotiations or complete institutional paralysis with no actor willing
to acknowledge the crisis publicly. The absence of even basic acknowledgment of the
missed December 22 deadline suggests the situation exceeds normal crisis response
protocols.
Two interpretations explain the silence. First is active negotiation where CARICOM, the
Organization of American States, and major donors are mediating emergency
agreements between the Transitional Presidential Council and political factions over
calendar revision, candidate eligibility disputes, or constitutional succession
frameworks. This interpretation assumes sophisticated crisis management where public
statements would undermine ongoing negotiations. Second is institutional paralysis
where the scale of the electoral collapse has overwhelmed existing response
mechanisms leaving all actors uncertain how to proceed without triggering broader
political instability. This interpretation assumes crisis exceeds institutional capacity
requiring new frameworks that do not yet exist.
The Christmas holiday timing compounds the silence because reduced staffing at
embassies and international organizations delays coordinated responses. However, the
crisis scale should trigger emergency protocols overriding holiday schedules. The
continued silence past December 24 would strongly suggest institutional paralysis
rather than active negotiation because any viable negotiation should produce interim
statements by Christmas to prevent panic. The next 48 hours determine whether the
silence represents strategic crisis management or systemic institutional failure.
December 23, 2025



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The 2015 electoral crisis triggered immediate CARICOM emergency mission within 72
hours of the first round dispute demonstrating that institutional silence typically
indicates paralysis not negotiation.



## TALKING POINTS

Zero statements from any government or international actor for 48 consecutive hours.
Silence from CEP, Transitional Presidential Council, Organization of American States,
BINUH, CARICOM, United States.
Two interpretations are active emergency negotiations or complete institutional
paralysis.
Christmas timing may delay responses but crisis scale should override holiday
schedules.
Continued silence past December 24 strongly indicates paralysis not strategic
management.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International media should directly query CARICOM and Organization of American
States spokespersons by December 24.
Diplomatic missions should issue basic acknowledgment statements by December 24
even without solutions.
Civil society should coordinate public demand for transparency by December 26 if
silence continues.
The Transitional Presidential Council should hold public session by December 27
addressing electoral timeline.
Emergency CARICOM consultation should be scheduled by December 31 regardless
of ongoing negotiations.
CONFIDENCE
December 23, 2025

High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Will the CEP publish the candidate list before Christmas on December 24 or will silence
extend through the holiday. List publication by December 24 allows minimal campaign
preparation but publication after December 25 formally acknowledges December 26
campaign start impossibility requiring immediate calendar revision. Gang violence likely
resumes within 24-48 hours of list publication or if delay extends past Christmas
indicating electoral collapse.



## THIS WEEK

Will CARICOM, the Organization of American States, or the United States issue
statements demanding CEP transparency or begin February 7 mandate extension
negotiations by December 27. If silence continues past December 27, the international
community has effectively acknowledged inability to influence crisis trajectory. The
Transitional Presidential Council should convene emergency session by December 28
to address both electoral timeline collapse and constitutional succession planning.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

The February 7 2026 constitutional deadline requires emergency CARICOM mediation
framework by January 15 to allow meaningful succession negotiations before mandate
expiration. Without intervention in the next three weeks, Haiti enters constitutional limbo
with no legal government, no security force command clarity, and maximum gang
negotiating leverage for amnesty agreements. The next 46 days determine whether
Haiti's democratic transition continues under revised timeline or collapses into extra
constitutional governance.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre official electoral calendar announcement November 2025
CEP official website cephaiti.ht accessed December 23 2025
Haiti24 electoral calendar coverage December 2025
Le Nouvelliste daily security monitoring December 21-23 2025
December 23, 2025

AlterPresse humanitarian and political coverage December 2025
Haiti Info Project social media electoral tracking December 2025
Reuters reporting on Gang Suppression Force pledges December 19 2025
Haiti Libre AmeriJet cargo suspension coverage December 2025
International Crisis Group report on gang alliance December 15 2025
OCHA 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan December 21 2025
CFR analysis on Gang Suppression Force operational constraints December 2025
CPJ Haiti transparency and press freedom assessment December 2025
ACLED regional violence data December 2025
Relief Web Haiti displacement and humanitarian access reporting December 2025
December 23, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*