2025-12-23

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

TALKING POINTS

Three consecutive days without security incidents since December 18 is unprecedented. Timing correlation with candidate list delay suggests strategic gang pause not holiday effect. Gangs monitoring electoral process strength to determine February 7 negotiating leverage. Violence likely resumes within 24-48 hours of list publication or Christmas delay confirmation. The silence represents calculated positioning not operational incapacity.