2026-02-28

International organizations should request the CEP's specific security threshold metrics for the August 30 vote date to calibrate contingency planning. February 28, 2026 Diplomatic missions should distinguish between public electoral support language and private operational planning assumptions in internal reporting. Business community should note that electoral uncertainty extending past August 30 represents a baseline planning scenario, not a worst case. Political actors engaged in the Pact should move to define a clear PM departure timeline before legitimacy challenges from excluded actors intensify. Donor governments funding electoral preparation should condition disbursements on measurable security benchmarks in gang-controlled communes. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.