2026-02-28

The April GSF deployment window is the single most consequential near-term variable for electoral feasibility. If 6,000 police officers deploy as France's Barrot projected, the security prerequisites for expanding voter registration into currently gang-controlled communes become measurable. If deployment slips or falls below projected numbers, the August 30 vote date faces structural impossibility rather than operational challenge. The DR deportation trajectory at over 35,000 per month is unsustainable for Haitian domestic absorption and will require either diplomatic engagement or humanitarian emergency classification before mid-year. PM Fils-Aime's open-ended mandate under the National Pact will face increasing legitimacy pressure from excluded political actors as the electoral calendar uncertainty extends.