2026-02-15

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

DEVELOPMENT 1

The dissolution of the Transitional Presidential Council on February 7 has created Haiti's first single-executive governance structure since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moise. Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime assumed full executive authority after a tumultuous final month in which five of nine CPT members voted to remove him, triggering sharp US intervention including deployment of three naval vessels to Port-au-Prince and visa sanctions against five council members. The US Embassy characterized the removal attempt as illegal and warned that corrupt politicians supporting violent gangs would pay a heavy price. France and CARICOM endorsed the transition, with outgoing CPT President Laurent Saint-Cyr publicly transferring responsibility to Fils-Aime and emphasizing security, political dialogue, elections, and stability as guiding principles. February 15, 2026 However, no domestic consensus exists on what governance structure should replace the CPT. The Patriotic Congress for National Salvation concluded that dual leadership consisting of a president and prime minister is imperative and called for a neutral technocratic government. Former CPT member Leslie Voltaire proposed a three-member presidential panel including himself, a Supreme Court justice, and a civil society representative, though the selection of a prime minister remained unresolved. CSIS analysis describes Fils-Aime as politically exposed due to the succession battle and notes that prominent Haitian journalist Roberson Alphonse warned the prime minister risks the same fate as Ariel Henry, who was forced to resign in 2024 after losing international confidence. The transition occurred under conditions of extreme political fragmentation. Haiti has over 220 registered political parties that have proven unable to agree on interim governance arrangements despite months of negotiation. A January 2025 survey found that 52 percent of respondents did not trust the CPT and 51 percent did not trust the prime minister, indicating weak legitimacy for transitional institutions generally. CARICOM recognized the transition but emphasized it should be a short interim period focused on improving security and intensifying electoral preparations. The absence of a collective executive body concentrates political risk in a single individual operating without clear constitutional authority beyond the transitional framework. Former CPT Conseiller-President Frinel Joseph deposited his end-of-mandate asset declaration at the Tribunal de Premiere Instance on February 13, but no details were made public and no public verification mechanism exists. This raises questions about transparency and accountability mechanisms for officials in the post-CPT governance environment.