2026-02-15

GSF first troop arrivals targeted for April 2026 with any delays extending security gap as Kenya MSS completes drawdown. Electoral funding commitments must materialize by late March for May 19 campaign start date to remain viable. BINUH 90-day DDR report due April 2026 will shape disarmament and reintegration framework. USCG port compliance deadline could trigger vessel denials at US ports if Haiti fails to meet international security standards. Kenscoff security trajectory will determine whether Viv Ansanm consolidates territorial gains in last safe capital area or faces effective resistance.