2026-01-02

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 10 pages

TALKING POINTS

Fourteen-day operational pause represents longest sustained period without major gang violence in 2025. Pause demonstrates gang operational sophistication and strategic planning capacity rather than military defeat. Government forces failed to exploit gang stand-down period with offensive operations to reclaim territory. Thirty-six days until February 7 deadline creates leverage opportunity for gangs seeking amnesty despite no-negotiations doctrine. Violence resumption expected January 5-7 when government operations restart and holiday pause rationale expires.