2026-01-02

Gang violence resumption within twenty-four to forty-eight hours of government reopening January 5 would signal end of strategic operational pause and return to pattern of attacks targeting economic infrastructure. Direction of travel is toward escalation as gangs test government capacity and exploit approaching February 7 deadline for amnesty leverage. Primary risk is coordinated attacks on markets, ports, or hospitals during January 5-7 window demonstrating government impotence.