2026-01-24

GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK The CPT launched national consultations January 18 to 20 with over 60 political parties and civil society organizations but no consensus emerged on post-February 7 2026 governance creating conditions for state collapse. COPPOS-Haiti representing 150 parties proposed a bicephalous executive with a new prime minister and 24-month transition. The Montana Accord and December 21 Accord submitted competing proposals with no mechanism for reconciliation. CARICOM Eminent Persons Group warned January 9 that failure to reach consensus could produce unwanted repercussions and emphasized time is of the essence. The CPT has not announced any governance framework with only 14 days remaining before mandate expiration. The dialogue failure reflects fundamental political fragmentation that has paralyzed Haiti's democratic transition since President Jovenel Moise assassination in July 2021. Major political actors including Fanmi Lavalas the Montana Accord bloc and private sector representatives maintain irreconcilable positions on transition length executive structure and electoral sequencing. International mediators including CARICOM the Organization of American States and the United January 24, 2026 States have failed to impose consensus despite sustained diplomatic pressure. The February 7 deadline approaches with no indication that competing factions will compromise on core governance questions. The absence of post-transition framework creates multiple crisis scenarios. If the CPT dissolves without successor arrangement Haiti will lack executive authority including inability to deploy security forces approve budgets or negotiate with international partners. If the CPT unilaterally extends its mandate it will face domestic legitimacy crisis and potential international isolation. If competing political blocs attempt to establish parallel governance structures Haiti risks institutional paralysis or violent confrontation. The constitutional void coincides with peak gang violence humanitarian emergency and international force deployment gap.