2026-01-23

Security planning should assume current threat levels persist through at least mid-2026 with modest incremental improvements rather than dramatic shifts. January 23, 2026 NGOs and businesses should develop independent security intelligence networks rather than relying exclusively on GSF presence for threat assessments. Organizations requiring armed escort should contract with vetted private security providers as GSF lacks capacity for routine humanitarian convoy protection. Electoral assistance programs should budget for enhanced security measures including fortified registration sites and armored transport for materials and personnel. Advocacy efforts should target donor capitals to secure multi-year GSF funding commitments that enable sustained operations beyond immediate emergency response. Contingency plans should account for potential GSF withdrawal or mandate expiration scenarios if funding gaps or political disputes emerge during 2026. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.