2026-01-23

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

DEVELOPMENT 1: On 22 January 2026 five members of Haiti's Transitional Presidential Council

signed a resolution to remove Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime from office. The signatories Fritz Alphonse Jean, Leslie Voltaire, Louis Gerald Gilles, Edgard Leblanc Fils, and Smith Augustin represent a majority of the nine-member body. CPT member Leslie Voltaire and CPT President pro tempore Edgard Leblanc Fils publicly confirmed the action on 23 January stating the Council would replace the Prime Minister within a maximum of thirty days. Voltaire indicated there would be a pause to allow political groups to negotiate an acceptable succession arrangement before the 7 February 2027 mandate expiration. The United States government responded with extraordinary severity. The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince issued a warning on 21 January stating that any attempt to modify the government composition at this advanced stage would be considered a maneuver to undermine transition objectives and would be null and void. The State Department's Western Hemisphere Affairs bureau escalated the language on 22 January calling CPT members pursuing this path not Haitian patriots but criminals like the gangs they conspire with. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke directly with Prime Minister Fils-Aime on 23 January to reaffirm United States support for his continued January 23, 2026 leadership. Canada's embassy issued a parallel statement on 22 January expressing deep concern and threatening measures against any actor compromising Haiti's peace and stability. The action created an immediate split within the Transitional Presidential Council itself. Laurent Saint-Cyr serving as CPT President pro tempore issued a statement on 22 January rejecting any government change approaching the 7 February deadline. Saint-Cyr warned that replacing the Prime Minister at this stage would undermine institutional stability and contradict the transition's objectives. This creates competing claims to authority within the council with five members asserting the power to revoke the Prime Minister while the coordinating officer and at least three other members oppose the move. The legal basis for the revocation remains contested as the decree establishing the CPT on 12 April 2024 does not explicitly grant the council authority to remove a sitting Prime Minister. The timing amplifies the crisis. With only fifteen days remaining before the constitutional mandate expires on 7 February 2027 the thirty-day replacement timeline announced by Leblanc extends well beyond the Council's legal authority period. This raises fundamental questions about succession legitimacy and creates multiple scenarios for governance paralysis. International actors including the United Nations have explicitly called for avoiding political fragmentation and ensuring continuity during this critical phase. The United States and Canada positioning themselves as explicit opponents of the CPT majority creates unprecedented external pressure on Haiti's domestic institutional arrangements with potential sanctions or visa actions against the five signatories now a realistic possibility.