2026-01-23

Stakeholders should prepare for multiple governance scenarios including CPT fragmentation, parallel claims to executive authority, or externally imposed interim arrangements. Private sector actors with operations requiring government approvals or permits should anticipate decision-making paralysis or contested authority over contracts and licenses. International organizations should clarify which institutional actors they will recognize as legitimate counterparts for program implementation and financial disbursements. Humanitarian agencies should establish contingency protocols for access negotiations if competing executive authorities emerge after 7 February. Diplomatic missions should maintain direct communication channels with both CPT factions and the Prime Minister's office to preserve flexibility in rapidly changing conditions. Political risk assessments should account for the possibility of targeted sanctions against specific CPT members including visa restrictions or asset freezes that could affect their operational capacity. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.