2026-01-20

Track whether Haiti enters February 1-7 period with announced governance frameworks allowing coordinated transition, unilateral CPT extension triggering opposition resistance, or institutional vacuum with competing authority claims from CPT versus alternative bodies. Monitor interaction between February 3 TPS expiration and February 7 CPT expiration to assess whether deportations of 350,000 Haitians occur during governance chaos, creating humanitarian catastrophe as diaspora returns to country with no functioning government. Assess whether January 20, 2026 gangs resume strategic offensive operations in late January to pressure amnesty inclusion in transition negotiations, or maintain partial pause through February 7 awaiting post-deadline governance clarity before deciding mobilization strategy.