# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-20
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: CPT National Dialogue Fails to Produce Consensus After Two Full Days of](#development-1-cpt-national-dialogue-fails-to-produce-consensus-after-two-full-days-of)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: Major PNH Operation Targets Barbecue Stronghold as 44-Day Gang Pause](#development-2-major-pnh-operation-targets-barbecue-stronghold-as-44-day-gang-pause)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: Federal Court TPS Ruling Remains Pending with 14 Days Until 350,000](#development-3-federal-court-tps-ruling-remains-pending-with-14-days-until-350,000)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: UN BINUH Mandate Expires January 31 with No Security Council Renewal](#development-4-un-binuh-mandate-expires-january-31-with-no-security-council-renewal)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Eighteen days before the February 7 CPT mandate expiration, the national political dialogue
concluded its second day with no announced frameworks despite participation from Montana,
COPPOS, KOREPAD, and December 21 groups, while Le Nouvelliste reports the CPT is
struggling to reach agreement and unnamed organizations refuse engagement. A major PNH
operation killed six gang members in Barbecue's stronghold as the 44-day pause shows signs of
tactical ending. Meanwhile, 350,000 Haitian TPS holders face deportation in 14 days with federal
court rulings still pending.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

CPT dialogue produced no concrete outcomes after two full days with major political groups
through .
PNH conducted major offensive against Barbecue stronghold killing six gang members and
seizing significant weapons.
Temporary Protected Status expires February 3 affecting 350,000 Haitians with no federal court
ruling issued.
Alliance of 70 political parties formed January 14 demanding CPT departure and rejecting any
mandate extension.
UN BINUH mandate expires January 31 with no Security Council renewal announced as of .



## DEVELOPMENT 1: CPT National Dialogue Fails to Produce Consensus After Two Full Days of

Meetings
The Transitional Presidential Council concluded the second day of its national political dialogue on
January 19, meeting with representatives from COPPOS-Haiti et Allies, KOREPAD, Montana
Accord, and December 21 Accord groups. However, the CPT's official statement released used
identical generic language to 's announcement, claiming to have successfully concluded
exchanges marked by quality dialogue, without announcing any specific consensus points,
governance frameworks, agreed timelines, or concrete next steps for the February 7 transition. Le
Nouvelliste reported that the CPT is struggling to find a political agreement before February 7,
while separately confirming that unnamed political organizations are maintaining their refusal to
dialogue with the transitional council despite the ongoing meetings.
The dialogue's failure to produce announced outcomes becomes more significant when viewed
against the January 14 formation of an alliance of more than 70 political parties that adopted a
protocol explicitly rejecting any CPT mandate extension and demanding the council's definitive
end on February 7. This alliance, which includes Grand Bloc du Peuple, Initiative du 24 avril,
Opposition plurielle, Accord Karibe, DEHFI, and MP-18, called for establishment of a new
January 20, 2026

one-year transition and general elections no later than fourth quarter 2026. The alliance was
formalized four days before the CPT launched its dialogue process, suggesting significant political
forces had already positioned themselves against the transitional council before consultations
began.
With 18 days remaining until the constitutional deadline, the absence of any announced
frameworks after two days of meetings with Haiti's most significant political stakeholders indicates
either fundamental disagreements on core transition elements, internal CPT deadlock on which
proposal to adopt, or a strategy of conducting consultations to claim legitimacy for a
predetermined decision rather than genuinely building consensus. and represent the final realistic
opportunity for announced frameworks that would allow the minimum 14 to 22 days required for
proper implementation of decree drafting, stakeholder consultations, legal review, official
publication, and institutional rollout.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The CPT was established under the April 3, 2024 transitional framework with a mandate explicitly
set to expire on February 7, 2026, aligned with Haiti's constitutional tradition that presidential
terms end on this date. The current dialogue represents the council's primary mechanism for
negotiating its own succession or extension, but faces competing legitimacy claims from civil
society proposals including the Montana Accord's Conference of Stakeholders model, COPPOS's
reformed transition with reduced CPT, and the 70-plus party alliance's new transition framework
that excludes the current council entirely.



## TALKING POINTS

The CPT met all major political stakeholders over two days but announced no concrete
agreements or frameworks with 18 days until mandate expiration.
An alliance of more than 70 political parties formed January 14 demanding CPT departure and
rejecting any extension, four days before dialogue launched.
Le Nouvelliste confirms the CPT is struggling to reach political agreement despite consultations
with Montana, COPPOS, KOREPAD, and December 21 groups.
and represent final opportunity for framework announcements allowing minimum implementation
timeline before February 7.
Unnamed political organizations maintain refusal to dialogue with CPT despite ongoing meetings.
Competing proposals remain irreconcilable on executive structure, timeline length, and CPT role
in any extended transition.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

January 20, 2026

International partners should establish direct communication channels with both CPT and
70-party alliance to assess feasibility of unified framework by January 22.
Stakeholders should prepare contingency plans for three scenarios: rushed transition agreement,
unilateral CPT extension, or institutional vacuum on February 7.
Business and humanitarian actors should assume no governance certainty through mid-February
and position for multiple outcomes including competing authority claims.
Diaspora organizations should monitor whether or produce CPT announcements as indicator of
orderly versus chaotic transition trajectory.
Regional bodies should clarify whether OAS institutional continuity mechanism remains operative
given CARICOM facilitation collapse and BINUH expiration January 31.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: Major PNH Operation Targets Barbecue Stronghold as 44-Day Gang Pause

Shows Tactical Ending
Haitian National Police conducted a major coordinated operation and against the Magloire
Ambroise Street stronghold of gang leader Jimmy Cherizier, known as Barbecue, involving PNH
special units including UDMO, the Armed Forces of Haiti, Gang Suppression Force, and the
Prime Minister's Task Force composed of private military contractors. The operation resulted in six
gang members killed, several others wounded who escaped, and seizure of 18 shotguns, three
AR-15 assault rifles, eight pistols, significant ammunition quantities, five drones, stolen UDMO
police uniforms bearing inspector rank insignia, bulletproof vests, and tear gas grenades. Justice
and Public Security Minister Patrick Pelissier declared that the recapture of the capital is already
underway, claiming that administrative center areas including the airport intersection, Delmas 19,
Nazon, and Magloire Ambroise Street have transitioned from red zone to orange zone status.
The operation represents the most significant security force offensive since January 14 drone
strikes on Barbecue's Delmas 6 residences, demonstrating improved multi-force coordination and
systematic targeting of gang leadership infrastructure rather than territorial control operations.
Minister Pelissier explicitly credited support from private companies, referring to mercenaries, with
making law enforcement offensives more effective. However, his designation of cleared areas as
orange zone rather than fully secured green zone confirms that no Port-au-Prince neighborhoods
are completely free of gang presence despite the 44-day pause in major gang violence and
intensified operations since early January.
January 20, 2026

The Washington Post reported that gang members attacked an Associated Press videographer
who was filming tactical police patrols in the capital, marking the first documented gang-initiated
attack on media or security forces during the 44-day period that began December 21. This
suggests gangs are transitioning from complete operational restraint to tactical defensive
responses, attacking those documenting PNH operations while not yet resuming strategic
offensive actions such as coordinated territorial expansion or mass displacement attacks. The
shift from zero attacks to localized responses indicates the pause may be ending tactically even
as gangs avoid full-scale mobilization that would forfeit their apparent strategy of maintaining
partial restraint to preserve negotiating position for potential amnesty discussions as part of the
February 7 transition.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has experienced episodic gang violence pauses historically when leadership transitions
create uncertainty about which political actors gangs should align with or pressure, with the most
notable recent pause occurring during the 2021 presidential assassination when gangs briefly
suspended operations awaiting clarity on power succession. The current 44-day pause from
December 21 through January 19 represents the longest sustained reduction in gang violence
since 2023, coinciding with the approaching February 7 deadline when the CPT mandate expires
and creating speculation that gang leader Barbecue is positioning for inclusion in transition
negotiations rather than risking exclusion through continued high-profile attacks.



## TALKING POINTS

PNH conducted major -operation killing six gang members and seizing 18 shotguns, three assault
rifles, eight pistols, five drones, and stolen police equipment.
Justice Minister claims administrative center transitioned from red zone to orange zone but no
areas designated fully secured green zone.
Operation involved five security entities including private military contractors explicitly credited by
minister with improving effectiveness.
Washington Post confirms gang attack on AP videographer first documented gang-initiated attack
during 44-day pause.
Minister Pelissier declaration that capital recapture is underway follows pattern of government
claims not matched by sustained territorial control.
Gangs appear to be testing government with tactical responses rather than resuming strategic
offensive operations.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security planners should treat orange zone designation as contested rather than secured territory
January 20, 2026

and maintain restrictive movement protocols.
Humanitarian actors should not interpret 44-day pause ending tactically as signal for immediate
strategic gang mobilization but monitor escalation indicators.
Business continuity plans should account for possibility of rapid transition from tactical gang
responses to coordinated violence if CPT announces unilateral extension.
International security assistance should prioritize sustaining PNH operational tempo through
February 7 transition period to prevent gang exploitation of political uncertainty.
Media organizations should review security protocols given targeting of AP videographer during
police patrol documentation.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: Federal Court TPS Ruling Remains Pending with 14 Days Until 350,000

Haitians Face Deportation
Temporary Protected Status for Haiti expires February 3, 2026, affecting more than 350,000
Haitian beneficiaries in the United States, yet the federal court ruling on the termination's legality
remains pending as of despite a hearing held January 6 before Judge Ana Reyes in the Eastern
District of New York and separate Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals oral arguments January 14 on
the government's appeal of a September district court decision finding the cancellation illegal. The
Department of Homeland Security has begun issuing notifications to Haitian TPS holders advising
them to prepare to leave the United States within approximately one month of the February 3
deadline unless courts block the termination, creating a situation where the government is
operationally preparing for mass deportations while two federal courts deliberate whether the
action is lawful.
The compressed 14-day timeline before expiration creates extreme pressure for courts to issue
emergency rulings this week or next to prevent irreversible harm if they determine the termination
violated law. Plaintiffs argue the cancellation was unconstitutionally motivated by racial animus
given Secretary Noem's and President Trump's documented use of racist tropes to dehumanize
nonwhite immigrants, violated the Administrative Procedure Act as arbitrary and capricious, and
ignored statutory requirements that DHS assess whether extraordinary and temporary conditions
in Haiti persist before terminating protection. DHS claims Haiti no longer meets the threshold for
protection and continued TPS is not in the national interest, despite advocacy organizations
documenting that Haiti faces unprecedented violence and humanitarian collapse that make return
impossible.
January 20, 2026

The overlapping deadlines of February 3 TPS expiration and February 7 CPT mandate expiration
create a five-day compressed crisis period where Haitians may be deported during Haiti's
governance vacuum, returning to a country with no functioning government, ongoing gang
violence, 1.4 million internally displaced persons, and 5.7 million facing severe food insecurity. The
deportation of 350,000 TPS holders would eliminate billions in annual remittances that support
more than 1.4 million family members in Haiti, collapsing financial flows precisely when the
country requires maximum diaspora support during political transition and humanitarian
emergency.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The United States first designated Haiti for Temporary Protected Status in 2010 following the
devastating earthquake, with subsequent redesignations and extensions maintaining protection
through multiple administrations based on ongoing extraordinary conditions including political
instability, infrastructure collapse, and recurrent natural disasters. The Trump administration
previously attempted to terminate Haiti TPS in 2017 and 2018, but those efforts were blocked by
federal courts that found the decisions were influenced by discriminatory animus and failed to
properly assess country conditions, leading to continued protection through litigation and eventual
redesignation by the Biden administration in 2021 and 2023.



## TALKING POINTS

TPS expires February 3 affecting 350,000 Haitians with federal court ruling pending 14 days after
January 6 hearing.
DHS issuing deportation preparation notices while two federal courts deliberate whether
termination is legal.
Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments January 14 on government appeal of ruling that found
cancellation illegal.
February 3-7 represents compressed five-day crisis with TPS expiration followed by Haiti CPT
mandate expiration.
Deportations would collapse remittance flows to 1.4 million Haitian family members during
governance transition and humanitarian emergency.
Plaintiffs argue termination motivated by racial animus and ignores statutory requirement to
assess country conditions.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Haitian diaspora organizations should prepare emergency legal support infrastructure for TPS
holders if courts fail to block February 3 termination.
January 20, 2026

International humanitarian actors should model scenarios for absorbing 350,000 returnees during
February governance vacuum if deportations proceed.
Advocacy groups should intensify pressure on federal judges to issue emergency rulings this
week given 14-day timeline before irreversible deportations begin.
Caribbean regional bodies should coordinate contingency reception capacity if mass deportations
occur during February 3-7 window.
U.S. Congressional delegations should explore legislative options to extend TPS given court
decision delays and Haiti crisis severity.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: UN BINUH Mandate Expires January 31 with No Security Council Renewal

Announced
The United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti mandate expires January 31, 2026, representing 11
days from with no Security Council resolution renewing the mission announced as of January 20
despite the council being expected to vote on a renewal draft prior to expiration. The mission's
lapse would eliminate UN political coordination capacity exactly seven days before the February 7
CPT mandate expires, removing the institutional mechanism that was referenced in the OAS
November 5 roadmap's clause calling for international support to ensure institutional continuity
and avoid a power vacuum if the transitional council's mandate ends without a successor
framework in place.
The timing of BINUH expiration creates a critical coordination gap during the precise period when
international actors would need maximum diplomatic infrastructure to facilitate governance
transition, broker competing legitimacy claims between the CPT and alternative frameworks such
as the 70-party alliance, and coordinate potential crisis response if the February 7 deadline
produces institutional vacuum or violent contestation. The Security Council is also expected to
hold a 90-day briefing on Haiti with Special Representative Carlos Ruiz Massieu, but this briefing
would occur after the January 31 expiration unless accelerated, meaning the council may receive
situation updates without having operational mission capacity to implement recommendations.
The simultaneous collapse of multiple international coordination mechanisms including BINUH
expiration on January 31, TPS termination on February 3, and CARICOM facilitation failure
creates what amounts to comprehensive abandonment of international support infrastructure
during Haiti's most critical two-week transition period from January 31 through February 7 and
January 20, 2026

immediate aftermath. The OAS institutional continuity mechanism explicitly relied on sustained
international engagement to prevent power vacuum scenarios, but with BINUH gone, U.S. TPS
terminated, CARICOM inactive, and Canada's position unclear, no coordinated international
framework exists to operationalize continuity support if Haiti's domestic political actors fail to reach
consensus.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

BINUH was established in 2019 following the closure of the larger UN peacekeeping mission
MINUJUSTH, with a mandate focused on political good offices, human rights monitoring, and
supporting Haitian institutions in strengthening rule of law and governance. The mission has
operated through Haiti's presidential assassination in 2021, multiple prime minister transitions, the
CPT's formation in 2024, and escalating gang violence, serving as the primary UN mechanism for
coordinating international diplomatic responses to Haiti's compounding political and security
crises and providing technical support for electoral preparations and constitutional reform
discussions.



## TALKING POINTS

BINUH mandate expires January 31, exactly seven days before CPT mandate expires on
February 7.
No Security Council renewal resolution announced as of despite expected vote prior to expiration.
Mission lapse eliminates UN coordination capacity during critical two-week transition period.
OAS November roadmap's institutional continuity clause relied on sustained international
engagement now collapsing.
Security Council 90-day briefing expected but may occur after mission already expired.
Simultaneous collapse of BINUH, TPS, and CARICOM facilitation creates international
coordination vacuum.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

UN Security Council should accelerate emergency session to either extend BINUH through March
or establish rapid-deployment political mission for February transition.
International partners should establish alternative coordination mechanism among major
stakeholders if BINUH renewal fails before January 31.
OAS should clarify how institutional continuity support operates without BINUH capacity to
coordinate international diplomatic efforts.
Humanitarian organizations should prepare for reduced UN presence during February crisis
period if mission lapses.
Regional bodies should assess whether CARICOM or Organization of American States can
January 20, 2026

substitute for BINUH coordination role during transition.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor whether CPT announces governance frameworks on or January 21-22, representing final
realistic opportunity for frameworks allowing minimum 16 to 17 days implementation before
February 7, or whether dialogue failure continues past this window assuring insufficient timeline
for orderly transition and triggering either unilateral CPT actions or opposition mobilization. Watch
for federal courts to issue emergency rulings on TPS termination given 14-day countdown and
extreme time pressure to prevent irreversible deportations beginning February 3. Track whether
gangs escalate from 's tactical attack on AP videographer to broader pattern of violence against
security forces or media, signaling strategic pause is ending rather than isolated defensive
response.



## THIS WEEK

Assess whether UN Security Council convenes emergency session to renew BINUH before
January 31 expiration or allows mission to lapse seven days before CPT deadline, eliminating
international coordination capacity. Monitor whether 70-party alliance that formed January 14
demanding CPT departure begins public mobilization or protest actions in response to dialogue
producing no concrete outcomes after two days of meetings. Watch for additional PNH operations
against gang strongholds following -Barbecue offensive to determine if government maintains
operational tempo or returns to sporadic engagement pattern.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Track whether Haiti enters February 1-7 period with announced governance frameworks allowing
coordinated transition, unilateral CPT extension triggering opposition resistance, or institutional
vacuum with competing authority claims from CPT versus alternative bodies. Monitor interaction
between February 3 TPS expiration and February 7 CPT expiration to assess whether
deportations of 350,000 Haitians occur during governance chaos, creating humanitarian
catastrophe as diaspora returns to country with no functioning government. Assess whether
January 20, 2026

gangs resume strategic offensive operations in late January to pressure amnesty inclusion in
transition negotiations, or maintain partial pause through February 7 awaiting post-deadline
governance clarity before deciding mobilization strategy.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

1. CPT Official Facebook Statement, January 19, 2026, Conseil presidentiel de transition page,
announcing conclusion of second day of national dialogue
3. Le Nouvelliste, January 20, 2026, confirming unnamed political organizations refuse CPT
dialogue
4. Zantray News, January 19, 2026, coverage of CPT dialogue with COPPOS, KOREPAD,
Montana, December 21 groups
7. Jamaica Observer, January 20, 2026, coverage of PNH operation against Barbecue Magloire
Ambroise stronghold
10. Haiti Libre, January 6, 2026, federal court hearing on TPS termination legality
12. Federal Register, November 28, 2025, Department of Homeland Security notice terminating
Haiti TPS February 3
13. Security Council Report, January 2026, monthly forecast on Haiti BINUH mandate expiration
14. United Nations Haiti, December 18, 2025, launch of 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan
15. Crisis Group, December 15, 2025, analysis of Haiti gang alliance dynamics and February
transition
9. Washington Post, January 20, 2026, reporting gang attack on Associated Press videographer
8. Le Nouvelliste, January 20, 2026, Minister Pelissier statement on capital recapture and zone
status
11. ACLU Southern California, January 14, 2026, Ninth Circuit oral arguments on TPS
cancellation appeal
January 20, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*