2026-01-16

Will Haiti navigate the February 7 constitutional deadline through coordinated international frameworks with CARICOM endorsement or through uncoordinated competing proposals from civil society and the Transitional Presidential Council creating legitimacy deficits. Will gangs maintain strategic discipline through February 7 prioritizing long-term amnesty negotiations or resume violence in late January to establish leverage for post-February 7 governance discussions. Will the Transitional Presidential Council announce departure by February 7 or attempt unilateral extension beyond the constitutional mandate creating potential institutional vacuum or competing governance claims.