2026-01-16

The government should clarify whether Prime Minister Fils-Aime's December 28 no negotiations doctrine remains in effect or whether behind-the-scenes discussions with gang representatives are occurring to explain the 39-day pause. International actors should assess whether the 39-day pause represents a genuine negotiation opportunity or a tactical repositioning by gangs before resumed violence in late January. Humanitarian organizations should prepare for potential displacement spikes if gangs resume operations between January 20-25 in response to the CARICOM critical window closure without amnesty framework announcements. The Transitional Presidential Council should decide over the weekend whether to include gang representatives in post-February 7 governance discussions to extend the 39-day pause through the constitutional deadline. Security analysts should monitor January 20-25 for potential gang violence resumption if announcements exclude amnesty provisions from governance frameworks. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.