2026-01-16

The 39-day gang attack pause from December 21 through January 16 continues despite January 14 drone strikes on gang leader Cherizier's hideouts demonstrating unprecedented strategic discipline. Gangs' failure to retaliate validates the Crisis Group's December 15 assessment that gangs prioritize February 7 amnesty negotiations over immediate tactical responses to government provocations. January 16, 2026 The IOM's January 15 report of 5,800 newly displaced persons shows PNH operations produce humanitarian costs even without gang retaliation. Gangs face a strategic decision point between January 20-25 to either continue the pause awaiting amnesty signals or resume violence to pressure February 7 negotiations. Gang territorial control of 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince according to MOPAL's January 4 assessment remains unchanged despite drone strikes.