2026-01-11

Twenty-seven days until February 7 2026 CPT mandate expiration with window for coordinated international action narrowed to next 10-14 days before institutional vacuum risk becomes acute. Three competing post-February 7 scenarios remain unresolved: CPT extension requiring international legitimization and contradicting Article 6.1 prohibition, PM-only governance under existing appointment authority, or dual governance crisis if both CPT and PM claim legitimacy. Gang strategic positioning around infrastructure chokepoints and 30-day operational pause suggests capacity for rapid escalation exploiting institutional transition vulnerabilities with historical pattern showing pauses precede major offensives. US-Canada split on CPT extension remains unresolved preventing unified international framework for transition legitimization with CARICOM warning confirming coordination failure despite multiple actor engagement.