2026-01-11

CARICOM WARNING CONFIRMS INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION FAILURE ON FEBRUARY 7 TRANSITION The Caribbean Community issued a public warning January 9 that time is running out for Haiti's leaders to agree on transition ahead of the February 7 CPT mandate expiration representing the first explicit acknowledgment by a major international actor that the transition remains unresolved with 27 days remaining. The warning issued by CARICOM's Eminent Persons Group reveals that despite holding talks with council members and political leaders multiple international actors including UN Integrated Office in Port-au-Prince La Francophonie Organization of American States and United States and Canadian embassies have failed to get Haitians to resolve the political impasse. The Miami Herald reports that the only agreement appears to be that the nine-member council must leave office on February 7 but how that will happen and who will ensure it happens remain unclear. January 11, 2026 The CARICOM warning confirms that the five-day silence observed January 7-11 in government communications reflects negotiation failure rather than progress toward consensus. Multiple proposals from international actors have not produced agreement on post-February 7 governance frameworks including no consensus on replacement formula enforcement mechanism or institutional continuity arrangements. The warning that time is running out suggests international actors now recognize the window for coordinated action has narrowed to the next 10-14 days with delays beyond late January creating risk of institutional vacuum on February 7. The absence of a specific CARICOM proposal indicates international actors are waiting for Haitian-led solutions rather than imposing frameworks revealing continued fragmentation between US positions favoring CPT departure and Canadian positions supporting extension. The timing of the CARICOM warning coincides with revelation of CPT internal fracturing over PM Fils-Aime's future suggesting international actors are responding to deteriorating internal consensus within Haitian institutions rather than external pressure. The warning represents public escalation intended to pressure Haitian political actors including CPT members PM Fils-Aime political parties and civil society to reach consensus immediately. With 27 days remaining until February 7 and no visible progress toward agreed transition framework the CARICOM warning confirms Haiti faces three possible scenarios: CPT extension requiring international legitimization and contradicting Article 6.1 prohibition, PM-only governance post-February 7 without CPT oversight creating constitutional ambiguity, or dual governance crisis if both CPT and PM claim legitimacy after mandate expiration. The CARICOM warning amplifies pressure on stakeholders to resolve transition within compressed timeline while revealing fundamental weakness in international coordination mechanisms that have failed to bridge US-Canada split on CPT extension or produce unified framework for post-February 7 governance.