2025-12-11

Bel-Air has been gang-controlled territory for over a decade, with periodic territorial wars between rival factions. The Viv Ansanm coalition formed in 2023 as a federation of previously independent gangs seeking to coordinate control over Port-au-Prince. The coalition has always been unstable, with member gangs maintaining separate territorial bases and leadership structures. Previous internal conflicts within Viv Ansanm have resulted in temporary violence followed by negotiated truces. The Krache Dife splinter represents a more fundamental break, suggesting the coalition structure is collapsing under pressure from security operations. The PNH non-intervention doctrine emerged gradually over 2024-2025 as gang territorial control expanded and police capacity remained limited despite MSS support. IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER International Organizations TALKING POINT The electoral calendar confusion and February 7 constitutional deadline require immediate diplomatic intervention. CARICOM and the OAS must broker a constitutional framework that either accelerates the electoral timeline or establishes legal authority for the transitional government to continue past February 7. The Bel-Air violence demonstrates that security sector support alone cannot restore order without addressing the political legitimacy crisis that prevents effective state action. RECOMMENDED DECISION Convene emergency CARICOM consultations before December 20 to negotiate constitutional amendments or transitional protocols for the February 7 to August 30 governance gap. Coordinate with the UN to establish that GSF deployment will not proceed without clear constitutional authority for the host government. Use financial leverage to demand the CEP issue immediate clarification of the official electoral calendar, making it clear that continued funding depends on ending the twin calendars confusion. Businesses TALKING POINT The six-month constitutional vacuum between February 7 and August 30 creates massive legal risk for any contracts, permits, or agreements signed during that period. Companies operating in Haiti must prepare for scenarios where the transitional government loses legal authority to enforce agreements or issue binding Thursday, December 11, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time decisions. The normalization of multi-day urban warfare in Port-au-Prince demonstrates that security improvements remain fragile and reversible. RECOMMENDED DECISION Suspend any major capital commitments or long-term contract negotiations until constitutional clarity emerges on post-February 7 authority. For existing operations, ensure all critical agreements are finalized before February 7, 2026. Revise security protocols to assume PNH will not intervene in gang territorial disputes, meaning private security must be capable of autonomous protection without state backup. Consider relocating staff dependents before February 7 given the political uncertainty. Political Actors TALKING POINT Candidates registering by December 15 must immediately demand written clarification from the CEP on which electoral calendar is operative. Registering under the wrong timeline could invalidate candidacies or waste months of campaign preparation. The February 7 CPT mandate expiration provides leverage to demand constitutional guarantees before committing to an electoral process that may occur under illegitimate authority. RECOMMENDED DECISION Form a unified candidate coalition to submit formal written demand to the CEP by December 13 requiring official clarification of the electoral calendar with legal citations. Refuse to proceed with registration without written confirmation. Simultaneously engage CARICOM representatives to demand their mediation on the February 7 constitutional crisis, making it clear that candidates will not legitimize an election held under unconstitutional authority. Use the December 15 registration deadline as leverage, threatening mass boycott if clarity is not provided. Diaspora TALKING POINT The twin calendars crisis confirms that Haiti's electoral process remains dangerously disorganized despite years of international support. The February 7 constitutional deadline approaching without any transition plan suggests the political class has not seriously prepared for elections. Diaspora communities should prepare for extended uncertainty and potential constitutional crisis scenarios including possible rejection of electoral results or refusal by losing parties to accept transitions. RECOMMENDED DECISION Diaspora organizations should document the current confusion by archiving contradictory official statements and media reports to establish clear record of institutional dysfunction. Coordinate with international partners to demand transparent electoral calendar clarification. For diaspora considering return or investment decisions, treat the February 7 to August 30 period as high-risk with no constitutional certainty about governmental authority. Support diaspora voting rights advocacy while recognizing that any 2026 election may face legitimacy challenges that complicate diaspora participation.