2026-02-25

CEP compliance deadlines: trigger is any party registration or documentation deadline passing; direction of travel is either compliance consolidation or disqualification proceedings; risk is that electoral calendar integrity is undermined before the process gains traction. ONI Kat Ou La distribution continuity: trigger is any report of disruption to the Gressier operation; direction of travel is CIN coverage expansion or stall; risk is that insecurity prevents document pickup, creating a suppression effect on future voter registration. MSS operational posture: trigger is any public update from the Kenya-led mission on deployment numbers or zone coverage; direction of travel is expanded metropolitan presence or continued holding pattern; risk is that PNH capacity erosion outpaces MSS deployment timelines.