2026-02-25

PNH or DICOP official statement on the downtown shooting: trigger is any formal communique; direction of travel is confirmation or denial of officer involvement; risk is that continued silence hardens public perception of institutional compromise and degrades civilian cooperation with February 25, 2026 security forces. U.S. Embassy follow-on advisory: trigger is any update to the February 19 alert; direction of travel is potential geographic expansion of named high-risk zones; risk is additional operational suspension triggers for international organizations. CPT post-National Pact activity: trigger is any decree, press conference, or public statement; direction of travel is implementation momentum or stall; risk is that a second full cycle without action signals governance paralysis at a structurally critical moment.